- Inflation came in hot again. October core CPI rose 0.3% for a third straight month, the 10-year Treasury touched 5%, and futures now price a December Fed hike as nearly certain. We cut macro-fit scores for capital-hungry growth names.
- Earnings season is strong but losing its edge. 84% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates, yet the average size of the beat is the smallest since late 2022.
- Two names lowered, three flagged. Members see every change with our reasoning and a suggested substitute. Third-quarter 13Fs land Monday, Nov 16, and the list refreshes automatically.
- We now track fifteen funds, and the list grew to eleven names. Five new managers widened the overlap, mostly in semiconductors and AI infrastructure. Our top-ranked name held its lead.
- Nvidia's CEO resigned, and chip stocks slid. AMD fell almost 9% on Friday. We capped conviction on the names most exposed to the leadership uncertainty.
The Optimus Weekly
One email every Monday morning. What moved markets last week, what changed in the holdings we track, and the data to watch in the week ahead. Free, in about five minutes of reading.
- Market recap: indexes, rates, oil, and the Fed
- Changes in key holdings and the conviction list
- Earnings highlights and what management said
- The calendar for the week ahead
Conviction list
Stocks that sit among the ten largest positions at three or more of fifteen tracked funds, scored and ranked.
Track record
Hypothetical equal-weight portfolio of the conviction list, bought at the June 30, 2026 13F report date. Price return, no fees.
Conviction list vs S&P 500
$100,000 invested on June 30 would be worth about $116,535, versus $100,674 in the S&P 500.
Return by holding
See each holding's entry price, return, and weight, plus the live forward-tracking index.
Past hypothetical performance does not predict future results. Entry uses quarter-end prices; holdings become public about 45 days later, so a real follower would have entered later and at different prices.
Smart money positioning
What fifteen tracked hedge funds hold in their ten largest positions, consolidated across the group.
Where the top-10 positions sit
140 positions across 15 funds. AI hardware and semiconductors dominate, with a meaningful event-driven and healthcare sleeve.
Last quarter's notable moves
| Theme | Activity | Funds |
|---|---|---|
| Space and satellites | Three brand-new 10%+ positions | 4 |
| Semiconductor equipment | Two new positions, one fund doubling | 4 |
| Home improvement | One new, one up about 60% | 2 |
| Big-cap internet | Mixed: adds at two funds, trims at one | 4 |
| AI chips | One fund exited entirely; one trimmed a third | 3 |
| Test and measurement | Both holders cut about 20% | 2 |
Most-owned stocks across tracked funds
Every stock held in the top 10 of two or more tracked funds, with fund count, position-size band, and whether funds were buying or selling.
Macro dashboard
The backdrop every idea is scored against. Dots mark pressure on stocks (red), support (green), or mixed (amber).
Regime: strong growth, sticky inflation, a tightening Fed
The economy is running hot enough that the Fed is raising rates into growth, not recession. Real incomes are slipping and households are saving less to keep spending. This regime rewards companies with pricing power that fund themselves, and penalizes debt-funded growth and long-duration stocks.
Key dates
Earnings season scorecard
Q3 2026, with 88% of S&P 500 companies reported.
Earnings growth by sector
Who is beating
Energy, technology, and health care lead, each with more than nine in ten companies beating earnings estimates. Materials is the weakest on earnings, and consumer discretionary the weakest on revenue, where only about half beat. Communication services posted the biggest aggregate miss, driven by one-time legal and investment charges rather than weak operations.
Markets are punishing misses less than usual, a sign investors are looking through one-off charges.
Street view and the cycle
Our read of where we are, cross-checked against major bank strategists.
Late expansion, still a bull market, now driven by earnings rather than rising valuations. Profits are growing about 30% with near-record margins and recession risk looks low. The late-cycle signs: a hiking Fed, a 10-year near 5%, inflation spreading into services, narrow leadership, and a market multiple that is shrinking even as earnings climb.
S&P 500 targets
Where strategists agree
- Returns from here depend on earnings growth, not multiple expansion
- Recession risk is low
- Quality and pricing power should lead
- Narrow market leadership is the main vulnerability
Where they split
- Whether inflation fades on its own or needs more Fed hikes
- How long AI spending keeps lifting profits
Methodology
Four steps, refreshed weekly. Fund identities are kept private.
We track fifteen long/short, growth, crossover, activist, and event-driven hedge funds. A stock qualifies only if it sits among the ten largest positions at three or more of them.
Revenue growth, margins, free cash flow, balance sheet strength, and valuation against growth, from the latest quarterly and annual filings.
Results versus consensus and company guidance, the direction of the outlook, and management's tone under analyst questioning.
How each business holds up in the current regime of rates, inflation, consumer health, and capital costs. Scores move when the backdrop does. Price trend, momentum, and volume are layered on as a timing check. See the charts.
| Score component | Weight | What moves it |
|---|---|---|
| Fund signal | 20% | Number of funds, position size, and recent buying or selling |
| Fundamentals | 30% | Growth, profitability, cash generation, leverage, valuation |
| Earnings and call sentiment | 20% | Beats and misses, guidance direction, management tone |
| Macro fit | 20% | Rate and inflation sensitivity, funding needs, consumer exposure |
| Technicals | 10% | Price versus 50- and 200-day moving averages, RSI, MACD, and volume trend |
Scores of 80 and above are high conviction, 65 to 79 moderate, below 65 low. 13F filings show US long positions only, up to 45 days after quarter-end.
Pricing
Start free. Upgrade for the full list and every write-up.
Free
- The Optimus Weekly newsletter
- One full sample idea
- Macro dashboard and earnings scorecard
- Street view and cycle read
- Headline track record
- Full conviction list
- Watchlist and most-owned stocks
- Fundamentals and research notes
Pro
- Everything in Free
- Full conviction list with names and scores
- Watchlist of emerging overlaps
- Most-owned stocks across tracked funds
- Fundamentals, valuation, and earnings detail
- Holding-level track record
- Full newsletter edition with names and position changes
Questions
Which hedge funds do you track?
A fixed group of fifteen well-known long/short, growth, crossover, activist, and event-driven managers. We keep the list private so the screen stays our own, but every fund files public 13F reports with the SEC.
How often does the list change?
We refresh scores weekly for macro shifts and company news. Holdings data updates four times a year when new 13F filings arrive, about 45 days after each quarter ends.
What is in the free newsletter?
Every Monday: what moved markets last week, the macro data that matters, earnings highlights, and any changes to the holdings we track, described by theme. Pro members get the same issue with company names, scores, and every position change.
Is this investment advice?
No. Project Optimus is general research published to all subscribers alike. It does not consider your finances or goals. Do your own research or consult a licensed adviser before investing.
Why can't I see short positions?
13F filings only disclose US long positions. Funds' short books, foreign holdings, and trades since quarter-end are not visible, so overlap shows what funds own, not their full view.
Can I cancel anytime?
Yes. Monthly plans can be cancelled at any time and stay active until the end of the billing period.